August 29, 2025 — The United States’ demand for cashews has seen a notable decline this year, driven largely by the impact of retaliatory tariffs. The shift is reshaping the global cashew trade, with China and India poised to overtake the US as the world’s top markets for the popular nut.
According to trade data, Vietnam — the world’s leading cashew exporter — saw its shipments to the US fall sharply, with volumes down 27.5% and export value decreasing by 11.7% in the first seven months of 2025. The decline has been linked to higher costs driven by US tariffs, pushing American importers to seek more affordable alternatives such as Ivory Coast and Brazil.
While US demand cools, China is surging ahead. In a remarkable turnaround, China has become Vietnam’s top cashew importer in just seven months. Between January and July 2025, Vietnam exported 412,000 tons of cashews worth $2.8 billion, with China overtaking the US in both volume and value.
In July alone, Vietnam’s exports to China hit 68,000 tons, valued at $460 million — a 1.3% increase in volume and an 11% rise in value year-on-year. The average export price reached $6,805 per ton, reflecting a 21.4% jump as global demand for nutritious snacks continues to grow.
Analysts attribute the surge in Chinese demand to stockpiling ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and a growing preference for health-focused agricultural products. China, the US, and the Netherlands remained Vietnam’s top three cashew export destinations, though China saw the most significant growth.
Despite retaining a dominant 87% share of US cashew imports in the first half of the year, Vietnam experienced a 10% decline in volume. The higher price of Vietnamese cashews compared to competitors further contributed to waning US demand.
As global trade dynamics evolve, the cashew industry is watching closely to see how India and China’s growing appetites will continue to influence production and pricing worldwide.